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Tuesday, October 2, 2012

How I am sure President Obama has the lead in the November election

I am sure of this because two people, one a close relative, the other a close friend, both female, have said they will most likely vote for Obama.  The relative lives in a conservative Midwestern state and attends church regularly.  The friend resides in a far-right conservative Southwestern state and has repeatedly voiced disdain for Barack Obama.  They may not reflect the total pulse of America but they do illustrate how badly the Romney/Ryan ticket is slipping in the polls.

Catholics for Obama - Biden
Well, that’s not all I base my premise on.  A new report conducted September 12-16 was just released by Pew Research that shows the President leads Romney among Catholics by 54% to 39%.  And this is despite the Catholic bishop criticism of Obama.  There are around 78 million Catholics in the U.S. according to the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA) so that breaks down to just over 42 million for Barack Obama, 30.4 million for Romney.

Religion and politics expert John Green thinks this is due to more Hispanic and Black Catholic voters, but also includes gains in white Catholics where Obama is now tied with Romney.  Carrying this further, there are 16.1 million registered black voters and 11 million registered Latino voters.  Catholic voters who numbered 25% of the electorate in the 2008 election have backed the winning candidate in elections dating back to the 1990s.

In April of 2012 the two candidates were tied at 46% overall with non-Hispanic whites 55% for Romney, 38% Obama.  Hispanic Catholics were a solid 70% Obama, 20% Romney.  How Obama gained 8 points in the polls and Romney lost 7 is probably explained in several ways.  First, his selection of Paul Ryan as V.P., another stumble like McCain/Palin in 2008; Ryan determined to dump Medicare; and the fact Romney still has no clear direction on leading the U.S.

Catholics are becoming more diversified and more divisive.  Sister Simone Campbell and other nuns from Iowa led protests in Washington against a “budget that rejects church teachings on solidarity, inequality, choice for the poor and the common good.”  Although the official church doctrine opposes birth control and gay marriage, polls do show than Catholics use birth control in similar rate to non-Catholics and more Catholics favor than oppose gay marriage.

More interesting numbers include the fact that Catholics supported Obama in 2008, George Bush in 2004, and Al Gore in 2000.  Also, Barack Obama beat John McCain by 54% to 45% with Catholics in 2008 but John Kerry lost the Catholic vote in 2004 to GWB, and he was the first Catholic nominee for President since John F. Kennedy.  Go figure.  There has been a steady movement to the right by white Catholics but just the opposite by Hispanics.

And yet another engaging fact.  Both vice presidential nominees are Catholic.  Sitting V.P. Joe Biden is a part of the Vatican II generation.  They believe evangelization and catechism are less important than charity and social activism.  Biden accepts homosexuality and abortion believing it is a natural evolution.  Paul Ryan is firmly against homosexuality and he opposes abortion even in cases of rape and incest to the female.  That’s heavy for women to overcome.

What we clearly have is a trend leading toward the Democratic ticket.  My relative and friend (I wonder how many readers have experienced this switch), the Catholics, the blacks and Hispanics, plus the female vote seem to all be favoring President Obama and Vice President Biden.  I know it isn’t a cinch yet and the President will make sure he continues on the same strategic path he has been following during the whole campaign.  Looking forward to the Wed. debate. 

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